Dear Elon: About that new party...

Elon Musk raised some eyebrows with his tweet about starting a new party -- with a super legit Twitter poll to back it up, no less.

The idea of starting a new party doesn’t have a great reputation. Maybe it’s the kind of thing that makes sense when the ketamine levels in your blood spike. Or maybe it’s a joke.

The source of the disdain for a new party is simple: third parties risk being a spoiler. Suppose the Muskocrats get traction and that they appeal to the center-left. They will pull votes from Democrats and do nothing more than help Republicans. Seems dumb! In political science terms, Duverger’s Law says that there is only room for two parties in single-member majority rule districts. In normal person terms, third parties are nuts.

But here’s the thing: we violate Durverger’s Law all the time. In around 350 House districts and 30 states, either either Republicans or Democrats are guaranteed victory. A new party wouldn’t be a third party in those states and districts. It might be a second party though.

If it is the case that voters in ruby red districts can’t stomach voting for a politician who will side with Chuck Schumer or Hakeem Jeffries [editors note: yes, this is the case], then Democrats have no chance in these districts, no matter how conservative they are (just ask Jon Tester in Montana or Lucas Kunce in Missouri). A new party that is not the Democratic Party – or even easier, a serious non-Democratic independent – can enter the race without running afoul of Durverger’s Law. Voting for them will not tip the scales to the Republicans – because the scale has already tipped. Independent Dan Osborne did this in Nebraska in 2024; he didn’t win but he ran 7 points ahead of Kamala Harris in the state. In 2026, non-Republicans should get midterm bump and if you add 7 “Osborne points”, suddenly lots of the “red wall” states look a bit like the Maginot Line.

Musk’s Millions

So what would I do with a few hundred million that Musk could drop? I definitely would not start a party that has anything to do with Musk; politics just isn’t his thing.

And I definitely wouldn’t recommend coming anywhere near purple districts where Democrats and Republicans will duke it out in 2026. A third party there only messes things up – as Sheriff Durverger insists.

But what if he looked at 100 of the most Republican House seats or 10 of the most Republican Senate seats up and identified a subset where the incumbent’s ineptitude, decrepitude or dishonest-itude is so stark that $20 million of negative ads might loosen things up enough to open the door for a center-right challenge?

Musk is right that the One Big Beautiful Bill is a dud: the trillions of dollars of new debt expose Republican lies about fiscal rectitude; the drastic cuts to Medicaid expose Republican lies about caring about low-income people. (Granted, I’m not sure this second point keeps Musk up at night.)

Spending money in ruby red districts can open political space for a new party – and help defeat the OBB and rein in MAGA.

I’m not predicting Musk will do this, but I dare him to try.